The Weekly Rip 2.11.24 [Moments Drive Collecting]
We're exploring the impact of big moments on our collecting because it's Super Bowl Sunday!
A big thank you to the Card Ladder team for being the official data sponsor of Stacking Slabs. Their team and product is amazing. If you’re looking to make more data driven collecting decisions make sure you check out Card Ladder.
There’s a few days each calendar year that I consider to be 10,000 calorie days. These are days where you don’t worry about the diet or even bring up things like saturated fats. These days are built and designed for gluttons. I always recognize Super Bowl Sunday as a 10,000 calorie day and I will do my damndest to hit that count. If you’re looking to hit the 10,000 calorie mark my only feedback to you is to make sure you don’t lose sight of the first meal. Breakfast is in fact the meal of champions. As you read this installment of The Weekly Rip make sure you grease the pan, get the bacon sizzling, and have the pancake mix handy. This is our day to place our bets, watch sports, get fat, and above all else consider how this all impacts the hobby that we love. So, let’s freaking go!
I was walking around my house trying to consider the main topic for this week’s installment of the newsletter and I kept coming back to the fact that I believe moments really matter in collecting. There’s no bigger stage than a championship game like the Super Bowl.
Let’s look at Tom Brady’s player index from February 5, 2017 to February 6, 2018. This time frame incorporates the Patriots' uncanny comeback from 28-3 in Super Bowl LI (Sorry Falcons fans) to their loss in Super Bowl LII to the Philadelphia Eagles. After the comeback you can see a steady incline and the moment when the market thought Brady could grab 5 rings the market went parabolic. Of course we know that TB12 went on to win 2 more after that to cement his legacy as the GOAT, but it’s interesting to dig into the data to see when collector’s started to recognize his eventual greatness.
It’s hard not to consider what this game might mean for Patrick Mahomes and his cards. At 28, Mahomes will be the youngest quarterback in the history of the game to start 4 Super Bowls. The only quarterbacks in NFL history with more Super Bowl appearances than Mahomes at this point are John Elway with 5 and of course Tom Brady with 10. Mahomes has entered rarified air and it’s hard to imagine where he’ll end up if we’re blessed to watch another decade of him. I dropped an exclusive conversation for the Patreon group with Josh Johnson (@cardboard_chronicles) where we spent nearly a half hour gushing over Mahomes.
Undeniably, Patrick Mahomes is the most accomplished and most important player whose cards are exclusive to the Panini era of collecting. His cards have only gone up in value at a rate of +4,586% since they were issued in 2017. He’s established a wonderful card lineage in all of the sets in the Panini era that truly matter to collectors.
The last public sale of the Mahomes rookie Gold Prizm /10 was in May of 2023 where the card sold for $103,200. The 2012 Tom Brady Gold Prizm /10 PSA 10 sold a few months later for $156,000 if we want to compare and contrast greatness with greatness.
I think this is where you fall into many fun collector driven debates. We begin to ask ourselves questions like: “Would you rather have the first year Gold Prizm of the GOAT or the Rookie Gold Prizm of a player who has accomplished so much and still has so much left in the gas tank?”. I’m not sure there’s a right answer and that’s the best part about talking about cards. It’s moments, fans, and conversations that drive overall collectibility. It’s so easy to focus on the Mahomes of it all during this Super Bowl, but there are plenty of other side effects that could take place barring the outcome.
Here’s some things that I’m thinking about:
The Legitimacy of Brock Purdy: A Super Bowl win paired with a strong performance would move Purdy from hobby flip chip to the creation of a legitimate collector base. There’s so many collectors who love his story and want to jump on board, but seek the long term security first. A win in the big game does just that.
A Running Back Who Matters: Christian McCaffrey is coming off the heels of winning the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year. They’re few players in the league as exciting to watch as CMC and it’s hard to imagine the 49ers in this position without him. There’s a stupid narrative in cards that running backs don’t matter. Why don’t you tell that to the Barry Sanders collectors? According to the Barry Sanders player index in Card Ladder his cards have increased in growth by 128% all time. CMC has the opportunity to be that player for a younger generation who are collecting right now.
The Travis Kelce of It All: This season has been a bit of a sideshow for Kelce, but his playoff performance shouldn’t be understated. He’s been the Kelce of old in every game he stepped on the field during this run. Another Super Bowl win for Kelce solidifies his legacy and will cement his poistion in Canton forever.
There’s a lot to consider after tonight and it likely won’t all completely shake out until probably about this time next year. Typically, patience isn’t a trait that the hobby as a whole possesses, but the collectors who continue to elevate their collections pick and choose their spots. I’ve always found that it’s a mixture of data and emotion. There will be plenty of moments that matter this Sunday. These moments could be the catalyst for your next purchase.
Enjoy Super Bowl Sunday…if you haven’t taken your first bite of bacon you’re already playing from behind.
Your Hobby Community Alternative
I’m really motivated about delivering value to the Patreon community. My goal has been to continue to drop exclusive content and add value as much as I can.
Some highlights from this week:
A discussion around collecting active players (Join to listen)
A conversation around what really happened in 2021 (Join to watch)
Video of Episode 396 about NT RPAs (Join the watch)
Collectors are joining to consume exclusive content, connect with other collectors, and promote their cards. Members can expect more data focused, collector content with your membership.
A Collector To Follow
I’m a big fan of following player collectors who go all in. I’ll admit I’m a massive Notre Dame football fan (Go Irish!) and I might be biased with this week’s selection, but you all should check out kh14.collection’s page. I smashed the follow button on the Kyle Hamilton tribute page this week. Hamilton is turning into one of the league’s best young defenders and it’s amazing to see all of his best cards curated in a collection in one spot.
Unpacking the Importance of the National Treasures RPA with Jamison (@exquisitesportscollectibles)
I always enjoy catching up with Jamison. While I’m not the biggest fan of NT RPAs I know that this is a card and product that matters to the community. I really enjoyed this chat and loved the comparisons that came when Exquisite was brought up.
A Space for Promoting Auctions
A big part of the new Patreon roll out is creating more opportunity to bring visibility to cards at auction. I’m a big believer in the use of consignors. They alleviate so much work for me, but oftentimes can’t offer the promotional treatment for every card that comes through.
Here are some cards ending this week from members of the group.
2019 Select Tom Brady Gold Prizm /10 PSA 10
2022 Topps Chrome Shohei Ohtani Red Refractor /5 New Classics SGC 10
1998 Topps Chrome Tim Duncan Apparitions Refractor 21/100 PSA 9 Jersey Number
Hope you enjoyed the return of the Weekly Rip!
Happy collecting,
Brett